Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
48 0x48cd…e882 crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$47 (+5%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%22W / 15L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day91.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$54
sports 8% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +25.3% +13.4% 59% 54% -9.0%
≤30d 37 +25.3% +13.4% 59% 54% -9.0%
≤90d 37 +25.3% +13.4% 59% 54% -9.0%
all 37 +25.3% +13.4% 59% 54% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.4% 54% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here +2.5% 49% -17.7%
15% -7.4% 46% -25.7%
20% -16.5% 43% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$22 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses22 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day91.0
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$14 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$29 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$11 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $81 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $73 +$30 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $63 +$13 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$27 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$20 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$1 -3%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$24 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$20 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$25 +159%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records