Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
48 0x48cc…0e54 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 515d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate69%33W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$6
crypto 8% +$1
other 3% −$1
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 48 +0.1% -9.5% 69% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

515d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses33 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage515d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Dec 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $27 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $6,097 −$6 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 14 $42 −$1 -1%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers finish with the worst regular season recor Mar 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $420 - 425b on February 28? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Feb 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? Feb 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Francois-Philippe Champagne be the next leader of the Canadian Li Feb 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 28 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $21 61d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 91d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $19 91d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 92d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 122d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $33 122d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $22 149d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $11 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $19 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $28 182d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $43 212d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 242d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 271d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 271d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $28 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $16 301d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $33 303d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $16 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $27 334d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 366d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 99¢ $15 366d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.07 · official $57.07 (match) · 102 history records