Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x48ca…75c0 politics 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+0%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 124L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$18
politics 38% −$20
sports 8% +$109
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 102 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 140 +3.7% -6.1% 11% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 9% -9.4%
10% -15.1% 6% -18.0%
15% -23.3% 6% -26.0%
20% -30.8% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×14.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage134d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $315 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $293 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $291 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 19 $233 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $212 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $239 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $283 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $539 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $214 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $216 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $302 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 09 $275 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $760 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $258 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $205 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $217 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $204 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $272 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $527 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $232 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $299 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $253 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $417 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $284 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $290 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $461 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 20 $287 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $34 17d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $34 17d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $26 23d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $26 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $293 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $293 31d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $291 31d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $291 33d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $261 33d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $261 34d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $233 35d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $233 35d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $223 36d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $223 38d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $287 38d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $287 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 420 history records