Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48c7…4764 crypto 484 markets active 1d ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-1%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%278W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$28
14 days−$226
30 days−$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$226
sports 1% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +45.4% +31.6% 42% 39% -12.6%
≤30d 484 +12.7% +1.9% 57% 43% -10.2%
≤90d 484 +12.7% +1.9% 57% 43% -10.2%
all 484 +12.7% +1.9% 57% 43% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 43% -10.2%
10% -7.8% 32% -18.8%
15% -16.7% 23% -26.7%
20% -24.9% 13% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses278 / 206
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)484 / 484
History coverage84d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 484 Trades
no open positions (118 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.33 · official $0.00 · 1451 history records