Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
48 0x48c7…e4b0 world 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,531 (+15%) realized +$2,770 · open −$239
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%25W / 70L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$183
7 days−$219
14 days+$389
30 days−$1,219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$4,096
crypto 17% +$718
politics 13% −$1,866
other 7% −$241
sports 5% −$412
weather 1% +$48
finance 1% −$103
tech 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -45.0% -50.3% 29% 29% -29.6%
≤30d 30 +10.2% -0.3% 30% 30% -30.1%
≤90d 95 +4.7% -5.3% 26% 26% -1.7%
all 95 +4.7% -5.3% 26% 26% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 26% -1.7%
10% -14.3% 24% -11.1%
15% -22.6% 19% -19.7%
20% -30.2% 17% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$432 vs −$119 · ×3.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$2,770
Unrealized−$239
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses25 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions12
Markets (closed)95 / 107
History coverage54d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? No 9¢ 6¢ $94 $63 −$31 (-33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 68¢ 81¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $81 $8 −$73 (-90%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 4¢ 0¢ $48 $5 −$43 (-89%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $24 $3 −$21 (-86%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-87%)
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 7¢ 97¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1288%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-95%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 24 $165 −$137 -83%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 23 $367 +$320 +87%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $31 +$10 +32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $246 −$246 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 19 $23 −$12 -51%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $562 +$296 +53%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 16 $478 −$478 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $38 +$840 +2212%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 08 $39 +$11 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 08 $59 +$18 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 07 $69 +$9 +13%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 02 $1,642 −$1,507 -92%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $884 +$587 +66%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $205 −$201 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $173 −$170 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 28 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 28 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 28 $84 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 26 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 26 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $30 +$9 +30%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $157 −$153 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $245 −$205 -84%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $230 −$154 -67%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 23 $1,116 +$567 +51%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $25 −$7 -29%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $450 +$67 +15%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? May 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 22 $64 −$23 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 22 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $446 −$130 -29%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $206 −$198 -96%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $301 +$1,396 +464%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 18? May 21 $146 +$48 +33%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 20 $98 −$96 -98%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 19 $415 +$1,453 +350%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 19 $273 −$93 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 18 $26 −$24 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $28 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $46 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $103 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 15h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 15h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $52 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $20 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 78¢ $521 18h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 4¢ $48 22h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 2d
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 51¢ $80 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 50¢ $40 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $40 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $20 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $12 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 30¢ $12 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $100 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $114 4d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 68¢ $8 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 26¢ $41 5d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 26¢ $62 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 5d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $48 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 50¢ $47 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 22¢ $106 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 50¢ $107 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.82 · official $185.88 (match) · 456 history records