Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

48 0x48c6…dae0 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$28 (-28%) realized −$11 · open −$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip

Net edge-60%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 102d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-60.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-12.8%	-21.1%	0%	0%	-21.1%
≤30d	1	-12.8%	-21.1%	0%	0%	-21.1%
≤90d	1	-12.8%	-21.1%	0%	0%	-21.1%
all	2	-56.4%	-60.5%	0%	0%	-60.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-60.5%	0%	-60.5%
10%	-64.3%	0%	-64.3%
15%	-67.8%	0%	-67.8%
20%	-70.9%	0%	-70.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -56% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$6 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage

Net worth$61

Realized−$11

Unrealized−$17

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage102d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$55	$56	+$1 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	44¢	10¢	$23	$5	−$18 (-78%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$10	−$1	-13%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	Mar 08	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$32	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$9	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	14¢	$9	1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY Yes	44¢	$23	101d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	101d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	102d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$15	102d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.88 · official $60.88 (match) · 109 history records