Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x48c5…89f3
other · 145 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$152,605 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$152,965 · open +$360
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10,039
Realized−$152,965
Unrealized+$360
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses82 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)171 / 145
History coverage45d
Avg bet$9,278
Trades / day69.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%
Chart Positions 4 History 171 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32,175
7 days−$41,951
14 days−$76,125
30 days−$138,573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $9,499 $9,854 +$355 (+4%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $159 $162 +$3 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $0 −$385 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $0 −$385 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $0 −$385 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $0 −$385 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $0 −$385 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $0 −$385 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $204 $0 −$204 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1,445 $0 −$1,445 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $0 −$385 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $0 −$385 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $0 −$385 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $0 −$385 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1,445 $0 −$1,445 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1,445 $0 −$1,445 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $0 −$385 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $385 $0 −$385 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $1,445 −$1,445 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $1,445 −$1,445 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $1,445 −$1,445 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $1,445 −$1,445 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $1,445 −$1,445 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21,040 +$33 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$31 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $19,939 −$9,939 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $9,692 +$27 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,007 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $12,491 +$36 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7,005 +$14 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $6,110 +$12 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $28 +$15 +54%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $30,172 +$69 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $19,939 −$9,957 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $4,683 −$204 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $2,368 +$15 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $18,545 +$25 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $5,981 −$385 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 97% −$130,098
politics 2% −$495
world 1% +$355
crypto 0% −$70
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,183 0m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 3m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $137 3m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 4m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 4m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,548 4m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 10m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 10m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $250 11m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 11m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 11m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 11m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 12m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 15m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 25m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 27m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 27m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 27m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 28m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -73.2% -75.8% 22% 4% -34.8%
≤30d 115 -7.5% -16.3% 39% 10% -31.9%
≤90d 171 +8.2% -2.1% 48% 11% -23.7%
all 171 +8.2% -2.1% 48% 11% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover69.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.1% 11% -23.7%
10% -11.4% 10% -31.0%
15% ← realistic here -20.0% 8% -37.6%
20% -27.8% 6% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,039.33 · official $10,039.33 (match) · 3500 history records