Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48c3…5f3d crypto 1482 markets active 5d ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%849W / 633L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$29
14 days−$32
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -16.7% -24.6% 37% 37% -23.6%
≤30d 680 -8.3% -17.0% 48% 47% -17.4%
≤90d 1482 -5.3% -14.3% 57% 45% -11.3%
all 1482 -5.3% -14.3% 57% 45% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 45% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 38% -19.8%
15% -30.0% 35% -27.5%
20% -36.9% 32% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses849 / 633
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1482 / 1482
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1482 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3499 history records