Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
48 0x48c0…45cd crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%38W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$6
crypto 11% +$2
tech 3% +$1
politics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 52 -1.8% -11.1% 73% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses38 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage536d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $81 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $35 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $67 +$1 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in December? Jan 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 04 $40 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 10 $5,556 −$6 -0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Yuki Tsunoda be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Cale Makar win the Hart Trophy? Apr 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers finish with the worst regular season recor Mar 24 $35 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $14 $0 +3%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $29 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $34 $0 -0%
Will AS Roma win the Serie A? Jan 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 11 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $52 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $28 61d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $35 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $33 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $30 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 99¢ $37 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $52 150d
Will Solana reach $200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $9 180d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $15 181d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $58 182d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 211d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $17 241d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $49 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 272d
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $49 274d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 302d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $36 303d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $8 333d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $17 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $55 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 363d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 394d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 395d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5,550 413d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.46 · official $77.46 (match) · 116 history records