Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48b4…e004 crypto 996 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$275 (+0%) realized +$275 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%878W / 118L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day134.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days−$154
14 days−$168
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 750 +0.4% -9.1% 91% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 996 +2.1% -7.6% 88% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 996 +2.1% -7.6% 88% 0% -9.2%
all 996 +2.1% -7.6% 88% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 0% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 0% -17.9%
15% -24.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -31.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$275
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses878 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)996 / 996
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day134.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 996 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $150 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $199 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $250 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $150 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $150 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $150 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $43 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.67 · official $156.42 (match) · 3500 history records