Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x48b4…b821
other · 17 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$286
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)4 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%
Chart Positions 13 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $93 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $38 $43 +$5 (+12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $36 $32 −$4 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 22¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-61%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$23 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $9 −$5 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 97% −$2
politics 2% −$5
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 29h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $17 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $96 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% +3.1%
≤30d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% +3.1%
≤90d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% +3.1%
all 4 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 50% +3.1%
10% -15.7% 50% -6.7%
15% -23.8% 50% -15.8%
20% -31.3% 50% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.89 · official $285.89 (match) · 28 history records