Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:10:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48b0…a348 crypto 130 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (505 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$14,948 (+6471%) realized −$11,369 · open +$26,317
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -89% what you keep after slip
Net edge-89%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 158L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day505.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26,859now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$15,430
crypto 42% +$11,177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (505 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-87.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -86.3% -87.6% 1% 1% +23.3%
≤30d 159 -86.3% -87.6% 1% 1% +23.3%
≤90d 159 -86.3% -87.6% 1% 1% +23.3%
all 159 -86.3% -87.6% 1% 1% +23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover505.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -87.6% 1% +23.3%
10% ← realistic here -88.8% 1% +11.5%
15% -89.8% 1% +0.7%
20% -90.8% 1% -9.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +223% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -86% · $-wt +223% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$294 vs −$1 · ×539.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.41 per $1 lost it wins $3.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$26,859
Realized−$11,369
Unrealized+$26,317
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 158
Open positions343
Markets (closed)159 / 130
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day505.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 343 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $151 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $151 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $151 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $151 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $151 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $151 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $151 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $3 $148 +$146 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $3 $148 +$146 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $3 $148 +$146 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $3 $148 +$146 (+4850%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,858.74 · official $26,858.74 (match) · 3500 history records