Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x48af…89cc
other · 346 markets active 6d ago
3.5score
+$93,743 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$89,781 · open +$36
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$3,400
Realized+$89,781
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses181 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)349 / 346
Avg bet$1,274
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 9 History 349 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$217
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2,924 $3,010 +$86 (+3%)
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No 55¢ 77¢ $157 $221 +$64 (+41%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $164 $72 −$92 (-56%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $44 $57 +$13 (+29%)
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026? Yes 25¢ 13¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-48%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 34¢ 90¢ $5 $12 +$8 (+164%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 40¢ 1¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-96%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 20¢ 89¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+333%)
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 26? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will there be exactly two announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? No 20¢ 0¢ $786 $0 −$786 (-100%)
Will Cynthia Nixon be named StopAntisemitism's 2025 Antisemite of the Year? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $681 $0 −$681 (-100%)
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by December 31? No 2¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 20? Down 20¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $827 $0 −$827 (-100%)
Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 19? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cynthia Nixon be named StopAntisemitism's 2025 Antisemite of the Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stew Peters be named StopAntisemitism's 2025 Antisemite of the Ye Jun 12 $99 +$28 +28%
Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Calla Walsh be named StopAntisemitism's 2025 Antisemite of the Ye Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novembe Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Zelensky" during conference with Putin on August 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? Jun 12 $415 −$127 -31%
Will Ana Kasparian be named StopAntisemitism's 2025 Antisemite of the Jun 12 $2 −$1 -80%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Jun 12 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +203%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 05 $1,990 +$268 +14%
Will "Trump" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experie Apr 08 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 15? Apr 07 $765 +$235 +31%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 03 $2,100 −$1,399 -67%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 03 $1,800 +$20 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $1,719 +$2,906 +169%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $4,968 +$10,454 +210%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 3? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31? Mar 29 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 07 $40 +$131 +328%
Will "Iran" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the w Mar 07 $221 +$3 +1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? Mar 07 $10 +$228 +2299%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 07 $4,608 +$7,862 +171%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 27 to Mar 06 $39 −$39 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $348 −$348 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will "Jamie" be said 5+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episod Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 03 $170 +$79 +46%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 03 $9,600 +$47 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 03 $128 −$128 -100%
AWS service disrupted by March 31? Mar 03 $38 +$55 +146%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar Mar 02 $202 −$202 -100%
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March Mar 01 $2 +$1 +43%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Mar 01 $342 +$472 +138%
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March Mar 01 $244 +$169 +69%
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28? Mar 01 $204 +$268 +131%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $12,183 +$3,522 +29%
Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 20 Feb 28 $100 +$34 +34%
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $161 +$213 +132%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $2,000 +$1,355 +68%
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 ( Feb 28 $2,110 +$602 +28%
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$18 +178%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $6,500 −$9 -0%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $580 +$420 +72%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $1,012 +$1,459 +144%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $782 +$2,218 +284%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 37% +$52,738
world 23% +$14,507
other 21% +$20,201
politics 11% +$5,468
economics 4% −$2,634
sports 3% −$97
crypto 0% −$71
finance 0% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $128 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $2,560 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $680 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $5,100 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $708 6d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1,368 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $3,858 6d
Will "Trump" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experie BUY Yes 8¢ $80 64d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 81¢ $339 64d
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $765 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $71 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $19 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $100 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $50 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $50 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $68 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $220 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $20 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $76 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $1,820 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $2,100 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $900 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $900 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -61.1% -64.8% 15% 15% -8.6%
≤30d 13 -61.1% -64.8% 15% 15% -8.6%
≤90d 21 -37.3% -43.2% 29% 24% +72.6%
all 349 +7.5% -2.7% 52% 32% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.7% 32% +14.8%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 24% +3.8%
15% -20.6% 17% -6.2%
20% -28.3% 15% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,400.07 · official $3,399.91 (match) · 3500 history records