Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x48af…7905
crypto · 35 markets active 1h ago
6.5score
+$78 +31%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$61 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$81
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses18 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)28 / 35
History coverage65d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 7 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $7 $25 +$18 (+257%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8AM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$11 -84%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $47 +$93 +197%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $54 −$43 -79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10AM ET Apr 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7AM ET Apr 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6AM ET Apr 12 $1 +$3 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4AM ET Apr 12 $4 +$21 +530%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2AM ET Apr 12 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1AM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8AM ET Apr 11 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7AM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1AM ET Apr 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10AM ET Apr 10 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8AM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6AM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4AM ET Apr 10 $1 +$2 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1PM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9? Apr 09 $2 +$3 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10AM ET Apr 09 $1 +$2 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5AM ET Apr 09 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3AM ET Apr 09 $4 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% +$89
sports 34% −$35
crypto 19% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 58¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 4h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 4h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 4h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 13h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 18h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $47 19h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $54 19h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 37h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 38h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $9 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $25 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.5% -2.7% 50% 50% +14.2%
≤30d 6 +7.5% -2.7% 50% 50% +14.2%
≤90d 28 +46.1% +32.2% 64% 64% +21.1%
all 28 +46.1% +32.2% 64% 64% +21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.2% 64% +21.1%
10% +19.6% 61% +9.5%
15% +8.0% 54% -1.1%
20% -2.6% 43% -10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.24 · official $80.97 (match) · 89 history records