Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
48 0x48aa…0d8a other 18 markets active 21h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$28 (+27%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$14
sports 30% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +30.9% +18.4% 50% 50% +18.2%
≤30d 18 +30.9% +18.4% 50% 50% +18.2%
≤90d 18 +30.9% +18.4% 50% 50% +18.2%
all 18 +30.9% +18.4% 50% 50% +18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.4% 50% +18.2%
10% +7.1% 44% +6.9%
15% -3.2% 44% -3.5%
20% -12.7% 33% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage11d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +120%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 +$8 +259%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $3 +$7 +223%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$5 -64%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 +$4 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +103%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 21h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 5¢ $1 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 27h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 34h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $11 41h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 30¢ $3 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $30 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records