Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
48 0x48a6…42de sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$153 (+24%) realized +$154 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$172
other 26% −$35
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +12.1% +1.4% 52% 52% +21.8%
≤30d 23 +12.1% +1.4% 52% 52% +21.8%
≤90d 23 +12.1% +1.4% 52% 52% +21.8%
all 23 +12.1% +1.4% 52% 52% +21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 52% +21.8%
10% -8.3% 52% +10.1%
15% -17.1% 52% -0.5%
20% -25.3% 39% -10.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$12 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$154
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $128 $127 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $77 +$70 +91%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $45 −$3 -7%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $38 −$3 -8%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $36 −$33 -92%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $41 +$46 +112%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 +$36 +101%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $15 +$12 +79%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $16 +$14 +84%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $46 +$20 +43%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 +$35 +312%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$9 -91%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 +$7 +84%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$5 +112%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $16 +$9 +55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $16 +$8 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $131 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $77 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $42 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $35 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $38 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $45 14h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $5 14h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals SELL Yes $0 14h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals SELL Yes $0 14h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals SELL Yes $2 14h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $87 14h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 15h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $31 15h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $72 15h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $36 16h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $36 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $12 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 55¢ $15 36h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $30 36h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $16 36h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $66 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $46 38h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $47 39h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $11 39h
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.79 · official $126.79 (match) · 44 history records