Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48a4…5419 crypto 406 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,639 (-13%) realized −$1,637 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%133W / 272L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day42.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$664
7 days−$335
14 days−$352
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,733
sports 3% +$50
other 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -35.0% -41.2% 29% 24% -17.8%
≤30d 224 -22.8% -30.2% 33% 25% -11.1%
≤90d 405 -24.4% -31.6% 33% 27% -22.2%
all 405 -24.4% -31.6% 33% 27% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.6% 27% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -38.2% 23% -29.7%
15% -44.1% 19% -36.4%
20% -49.6% 16% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$1,637
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses133 / 272
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)405 / 406
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day42.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Down 28¢ 81¢ $9 $27 +$18 (+194%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Up 25¢ 18¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $64 −$62 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$31 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $112 −$107 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$20 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $112 −$36 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4AM ET Jun 14 $49 −$18 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$14 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $22 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.00 · official $32.01 (match) · 3500 history records