Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x489b…36ab crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$703 (-35%) realized −$704 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate44%23W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$730
sports 37% +$61
crypto 13% −$52
other 7% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -4.7% -13.7% 67% 67% +0.0%
all 52 -21.2% -28.7% 44% 21% -60.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 21% -60.3%
10% -35.5% 17% -64.1%
15% -41.7% 13% -67.5%
20% -47.4% 10% -70.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$28 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$704
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses23 / 29
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage154d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $138 $139 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $753 +$61 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 04 $47 −$47 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 04 $20 +$10 +48%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $874 −$730 -84%
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 02 $2 −$1 -45%
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 02 $2 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 02 $5 −$2 -31%
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -60%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 30 $12 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 30 $4 −$1 -25%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 30 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 30 $2 −$1 -53%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 30 $1 −$1 -91%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 30 $3 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 30 $3 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 30 $3 +$1 +17%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 30 $1 $0 -8%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 29 $1 +$1 +62%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 29 $13 −$1 -7%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 29 $16 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 28 $3 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 28 $21 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 28 $15 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 28 $1 +$3 +267%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 28 $1 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 28 $2 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 28 $1 +$1 +124%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 28 $4 +$3 +82%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 27 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 27 $2 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 25 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 25 $2 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 25 $2 $0 -16%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 25 $2 −$2 -78%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 25 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 25 $2 +$3 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 23 $20 −$12 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $142 1h
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 16¢ $88 45d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 19¢ $9 45d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 14¢ $86 45d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 80¢ $160 45d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Khamzat Chimaev 75¢ $234 45d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Khamzat Chimaev 75¢ $487 45d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 52¢ $507 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $47 81d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $30 81d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 81d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 81d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 0¢ $144 115d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $141 116d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $152 116d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $4 116d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $18 116d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $59 116d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $28 116d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $2 116d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $0 116d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $208 116d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $1 116d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $2 116d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $250 116d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $9 116d
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 142d
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 142d
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 142d
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.26 · official $139.26 (match) · 268 history records