Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4897…0662 crypto 731 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$530 (-5%) realized −$487 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate36%321W / 581L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1128.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 902 -27.1% -34.1% 36% 26% -16.8%
≤30d 902 -27.1% -34.1% 36% 26% -16.8%
≤90d 902 -27.1% -34.1% 36% 26% -16.8%
all 902 -27.1% -34.1% 36% 26% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1128.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.1% 26% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -40.4% 23% -24.8%
15% -46.1% 21% -32.1%
20% -51.4% 18% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$487
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses321 / 581
Open positions3
Markets (closed)902 / 731
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1128.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 902 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 29¢ 40¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+40%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 457 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $24 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $19 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $17 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $24 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $0 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.55 · official $51.89 · 3500 history records