Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
48 0x4896…e0a1 other 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$320 (+13%) realized +$308 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$281
7 days+$72
14 days+$409
30 days+$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$19
sports 27% +$358
crypto 8% −$5
world 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +14.8% +3.8% 41% 41% -3.9%
≤30d 72 +28.7% +16.5% 46% 46% +1.9%
≤90d 72 +28.7% +16.5% 46% 46% +1.9%
all 72 +28.7% +16.5% 46% 46% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.5% 46% +1.9%
10% +5.3% 39% -7.8%
15% -4.9% 38% -16.7%
20% -14.2% 29% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$28 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$308
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 39
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)72 / 77
History coverage33d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+29%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $102 +$308 +301%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$9 +22%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $43 +$32 +75%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $144 −$141 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $41 −$41 -99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $11 +$29 +262%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$2 -8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $82 −$81 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $62 +$93 +152%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +50%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 +$100 +650%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$60 +388%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 +$25 +77%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $71 +$44 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$17 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $61 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $60 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 16h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 23h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 25h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 25h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $43 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $61 2d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 2d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $29 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.12 · official $224.12 (match) · 174 history records