Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
48 0x4891…2a07 sports 34 markets active 2d ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$272 (+4%) realized +$272 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +102% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+82.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +101.8% +82.6% 44% 38% -6.9%
≤30d 34 +101.8% +82.6% 44% 38% -6.9%
≤90d 34 +101.8% +82.6% 44% 38% -6.9%
all 34 +101.8% +82.6% 44% 38% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +82.6% 38% -6.9%
10% +65.1% 35% -15.8%
15% +49.2% 35% -24.0%
20% +34.5% 29% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +102% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +112% → late +91% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$119 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage5d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $255 +$27 +10%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $253 −$250 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$24 -48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $305 +$362 +119%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $304 −$99 -32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $172 +$102 +59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $254 −$250 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $72 +$70 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $404 +$41 +10%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $153 +$426 +278%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $204 −$141 -69%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $203 −$151 -74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $313 +$503 +161%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $305 −$88 -29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $51 +$68 +134%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $304 +$222 +73%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $152 −$150 -99%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Sergio Callejon Jun 09 $202 +$126 +62%
Cattolica: Miguel Tobon vs Alexander Vasilev Jun 09 $102 −$53 -52%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $305 +$58 +19%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $459 +$217 +47%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $357 −$273 -76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $142 −$60 -42%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $18 −$18 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $122 +$24 +19%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $103 +$96 +94%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $203 +$96 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 52¢ $101 38h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 42¢ $281 39h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 37¢ $255 39h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 54¢ $253 40h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 12¢ $27 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 34¢ $102 40h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 22¢ $51 41h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 22¢ $51 41h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 45¢ $305 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $205 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $304 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 89¢ $275 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $172 44h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 40¢ $254 45h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 26¢ $137 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 74¢ $445 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $404 46h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 62¢ $152 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $102 47h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 13¢ $72 47h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 26¢ $153 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 10¢ $63 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 31¢ $204 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 12¢ $52 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 45¢ $203 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 82¢ $816 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 31¢ $55 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 31¢ $140 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 31¢ $22 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 32¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records