Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
48 0x488e…ab99 other 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$193 (+34%) realized +$245 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +134% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +112% what you keep after slip
Net edge+112%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$371
7 days+$485
14 days+$485
30 days+$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$279
other 34% +$154
world 6% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+112.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +160.3% +135.5% 48% 48% +87.7%
≤30d 27 +160.3% +135.5% 48% 48% +87.7%
≤90d 27 +160.3% +135.5% 48% 48% +87.7%
all 30 +134.3% +112.0% 43% 43% +73.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +112.0% 43% +73.5%
10% +91.7% 43% +56.9%
15% +73.2% 43% +41.8%
20% +56.2% 43% +27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +108% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +134% · $-wt +92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +158% → late +110% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$9 · ×5.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.0 per $1 lost it wins $4.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$245
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage137d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 +$158 +765%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$96 +95%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $71 +$62 +88%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$100 +977%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $33 +$29 +88%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$46 +249%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$30 +99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1423%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +143%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$24 +234%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$11 +71%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$6 +58%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 +$14 +1322%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $6 −$5 -77%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Jan 31 $15 −$15 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 40¢ $111 13m
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 24¢ $67 30m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 31m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $198 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 6h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $133 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 78¢ $111 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $62 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $33 27h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 27h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $71 27h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 36h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $24 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $61 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.07 · official $29.27 · 54 history records