Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x488d…845d crypto 557 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$94 (-2%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%300W / 257L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$773
7 days−$89
14 days−$166
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$26
other 26% +$165
sports 10% −$275
world 3% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 230 +1.0% -8.6% 37% 33% -13.2%
≤30d 449 -5.7% -14.7% 53% 33% -14.0%
≤90d 557 -5.7% -14.6% 54% 36% -14.3%
all 557 -5.7% -14.6% 54% 36% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 36% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 23% -22.5%
15% -30.3% 15% -30.0%
20% -37.1% 10% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses300 / 257
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)557 / 557
History coverage53d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 557 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +95%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -13%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$15 +44%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -96%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -86%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $5 +$4 +97%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $2 −$1 -56%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $2 −$1 -30%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $2 −$2 -72%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $2 +$3 +109%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -11%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $2 $0 -20%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $1 $0 -36%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4 0m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 45¢ $2 29m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 40m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals 17¢ $1 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 40¢ $2 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $202 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $3 6h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 25¢ $5 6h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 25¢ $5 6h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 50¢ $4 6h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 50¢ $4 7h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Laslo Djere 50¢ $2 8h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Laslo Djere 50¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 11h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 49¢ $2 12h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 21¢ $1 12h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa SELL Mia Ristic 57¢ $1 12h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Kimberly Birrell 25¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1532 history records