Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x488d…9402 other 50 markets active 11h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-23%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%6W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$16
sports 9% −$4
crypto 8% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -30.7% -37.3% 12% 12% -31.6%
≤30d 50 -30.7% -37.3% 12% 12% -31.6%
≤90d 50 -30.7% -37.3% 12% 12% -31.6%
all 50 -30.7% -37.3% 12% 12% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 12% -31.6%
10% -43.3% 12% -38.1%
15% -48.8% 12% -44.1%
20% -53.8% 12% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses6 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 +$10 +982%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 +$7 +712%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +414%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 3 Tunisia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records