Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:53:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x488c…8c1c weather 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (191 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$25,594 (+89%) realized +$25,285 · open +$309
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%138W / 97L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day190.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,956now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$9,563
other 1% +$146
sports 1% +$1
world 0% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (191 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +17.4% +6.2% 56% 25% +9.1%
≤30d 235 +61.1% +45.8% 59% 31% +19.9%
≤90d 235 +61.1% +45.8% 59% 31% +19.9%
all 235 +61.1% +45.8% 59% 31% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover190.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.8% 31% +19.9%
10% ← realistic here +31.8% 24% +8.4%
15% +19.1% 20% -2.1%
20% +7.4% 17% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +97% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$18 · ×4.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.35 per $1 lost it wins $6.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,956
Realized+$25,285
Unrealized+$309
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses138 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)235 / 253
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$114
Trades / day190.6
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $873 $876 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $356 $448 +$92 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15? Yes 8¢ 100¢ $18 $231 +$213 (+1153%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? No 81¢ 100¢ $110 $136 +$26 (+24%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 58¢ $103 $93 −$10 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? No 77¢ 100¢ $33 $43 +$10 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 62¢ 64¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? No 89¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? No 34¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+110%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+20%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Yes 40¢ 72¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+80%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $35 $1 −$33 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $133 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $482 +$126 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $62 +$94 +152%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +567%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $142 +$77 +54%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on June 12? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $89 +$11 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $78 +$15 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on June 12? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 13 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 15 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $95 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $146 −$50 -34%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? Jun 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $76 −$19 -26%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$16 +236%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$7 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $31 −$12 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $76 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $582 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $72 +$218 +304%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $87 −$56 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $82 −$18 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$4 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$21 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $56 +$15 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$8 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $36 +$8 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $53 −$28 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $168 +$30 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $44 +$32 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $84 7m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 7m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 7m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $504 12m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 12m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 13m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $276 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $90 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 88¢ $28 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $52 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $42 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,956.43 · official $1,956.43 (match) · 3500 history records