Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:10:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
48 0x488a…66cf other 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+6%) realized +$28 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%33W / 32L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$1
sports 15% +$10
economics 4% +$1
world 3% +$2
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +21.9% +10.3% 64% 64% -2.8%
≤30d 11 +21.9% +10.3% 64% 64% -2.8%
≤90d 51 -17.2% -25.1% 43% 43% -11.9%
all 65 -10.1% -18.7% 51% 46% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 46% -0.3%
10% -26.5% 40% -9.9%
15% -33.6% 34% -18.6%
20% -40.1% 26% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses33 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)65 / 70
History coverage541d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $25 $18 −$8 (-30%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$5 -80%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $11 +$2 +16%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $1 $0 +34%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AZ win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $2 +$1 +79%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-04-07? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +83%
Wuning: Kody Pearson vs Zhao Zhao Apr 07 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-05? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-05? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $1 $0 +42%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $1 +$1 +113%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $1 +$2 +194%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FK Krasnodar win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $1 +$1 +90%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $1 +$2 +178%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $2 −$1 -66%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $1 $0 +42%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $3 +$2 +53%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 9m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 11m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 41m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 44m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $5 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $1 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 70¢ $2 3d
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? SELL No 91¢ $13 46d
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? BUY No 78¢ $11 46d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 65d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 66d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 66d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 67d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 67d
Will AZ win on 2026-04-09? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 67d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 68d
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 69d
Wuning: Kody Pearson vs Zhao Zhao SELL Kody Pearson 100¢ $2 69d
Wuning: Kody Pearson vs Zhao Zhao BUY Kody Pearson 56¢ $1 69d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.02 · official $38.02 (match) · 145 history records