Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x488a…cb68 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$193 (-12%) realized −$193 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -11.3% -19.7% 36% 36% -24.0%
≤30d 11 -11.3% -19.7% 36% 36% -24.0%
≤90d 11 -11.3% -19.7% 36% 36% -24.0%
all 11 -11.3% -19.7% 36% 36% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 36% -24.0%
10% -27.4% 36% -31.3%
15% -34.4% 36% -37.9%
20% -40.8% 36% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$104 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $25 +$35 +144%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $133 −$10 -7%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $239 +$176 +74%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $227 −$222 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $259 +$280 +108%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $441 −$441 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$2 -15%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $6 +$4 +54%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $205 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 41¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $177 5h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 16¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 69¢ $124 5h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 100¢ $415 5h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 65¢ $122 6h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 65¢ $8 6h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 50¢ $108 6h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 50¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Alpha Gaming 34¢ $104 10h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Alpha Gaming 30¢ $123 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $539 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $58 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $58 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $29 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 22¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 33¢ $48 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $441 2d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Ares 10¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 Ares 44¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Ares 43¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Ares 43¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 Ares 43¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Ares 46¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records