Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x4889…e2d8 sports 546 markets active 1h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,357 (+1%) realized +$2,605 · open −$248
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate70%381W / 163L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$575per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$523est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,658now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$644
7 days−$658
14 days+$1,539
30 days+$1,528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$263
other 9% +$2,721
economics 3% −$1,635
culture 1% −$329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -18.7% -26.5% 59% 59% -14.5%
≤30d 41 +5.8% -4.3% 73% 73% -4.6%
≤90d 149 -33.8% -40.1% 44% 42% -35.2%
all 544 +3.4% -6.5% 70% 62% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 62% -9.1%
10% -15.4% 47% -17.8%
15% -23.6% 33% -25.8%
20% -31.1% 22% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$650) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$199 vs −$458 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$1,658
Realized+$2,605
Unrealized−$248
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses381 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$523
Open positions2
Markets (closed)544 / 546
History coverage597d
Avg bet$575
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card) Shara Magomedov 77¢ 60¢ $1,155 $900 −$255 (-22%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 50¢ 50¢ $750 $758 +$8 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $1,231 +$419 +34%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 27 $64 −$63 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $941 −$929 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy Jun 27 $1,280 +$220 +17%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $207 −$204 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $476 +$274 +58%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $1,237 +$263 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $141 +$84 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $139 −$138 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $577 −$570 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $627 +$373 +60%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $120 +$60 +50%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $47 −$46 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $1,600 +$367 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $716 +$284 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $1,251 +$249 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $1,306 −$1,300 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,025 +$975 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1,178 +$322 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,163 +$337 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $483 +$110 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,133 +$367 +32%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 14 $288 +$86 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 12 $2,037 −$2,025 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $627 +$373 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $1,207 +$293 +24%
Zuffa Boxing 7: Cutler vs. Sutton (Middleweight, Main) Jun 07 $12 +$2 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 07 $113 +$37 +32%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $149 +$151 +101%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 07 $444 +$119 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 07 $401 +$249 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $609 −$600 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 31 $736 +$264 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 31 $840 +$160 +19%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 31 $1,649 +$351 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $167 −$17 -10%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $172 +$53 +31%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $196 +$54 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $430 +$470 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 30 $617 +$383 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $331 −$328 -99%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $4,807 +$330 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 17 $348 +$152 +44%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 17 $309 +$191 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 17 $318 +$182 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 17 $323 +$177 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 17 $304 +$196 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $403 +$347 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $294 −$290 -99%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 12 $152 +$98 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $761 42m
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 77¢ $1,163 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 42¢ $64 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 62¢ $941 1h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Asu Almabayev 74¢ $1,231 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 51¢ $207 2h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 85¢ $1,280 3h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 63¢ $476 3h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 69¢ $139 4h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Daniil Donchenko 82¢ $1,237 5h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 62¢ $2 5h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 62¢ $139 5h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 57¢ $577 5h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 51¢ $47 6d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 62¢ $627 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 66¢ $120 6d
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 71¢ $716 6d
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 85¢ $1,281 6d
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 84¢ $25 6d
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 81¢ $1,600 6d
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 83¢ $1,251 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $508 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $1,178 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $483 12d
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Fury 78¢ $69 13d
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Fury 76¢ $219 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $517 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $407 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $407 17d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $1,133 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,658.25 · official $1,740.75 · 1284 history records