Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4888…08c0 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-4%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$5
other 8% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.9% -2.4% 64% 57% -12.3%
≤30d 14 +7.9% -2.4% 64% 57% -12.3%
≤90d 14 +7.9% -2.4% 64% 57% -12.3%
all 14 +7.9% -2.4% 64% 57% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 57% -12.3%
10% -11.8% 57% -20.7%
15% -20.3% 36% -28.3%
20% -28.1% 21% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $34 +$12 +36%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $39 −$5 -13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $37 +$3 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $28 +$9 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $17 +$11 +64%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $18 −$1 -4%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $11 +$7 +59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $60 +$19 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $12 −$3 -25%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $41 +$11 +27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $29 +$12 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $46 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $46 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $34 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $34 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $39 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 74¢ $39 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $37 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $28 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $17 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 58¢ $17 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $18 24h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 25h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $11 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $78 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $78 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $60 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 47¢ $9 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $12 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $52 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $41 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $41 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $29 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.68 · official $45.68 (match) · 30 history records