Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

48 0x4888…86bf other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$12 (-24%) realized −$13 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day25.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover25.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10% ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$4 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$35

Realized−$13

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions6

Markets (closed)3 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day25.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	64¢	60¢	$12	$11	−$1 (-5%)
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx	Minnesota Lynx	92¢	100¢	$8	$9	+$1 (+8%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	48¢	58¢	$4	$5	+$1 (+22%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	29¢	23¢	$6	$5	−$1 (-19%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	74¢	77¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	70¢	70¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	64¢	53¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$8	−$8	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx	BUY Minnesota Lynx	92¢	$2	1h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx	BUY Minnesota Lynx	92¢	$2	1h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx	BUY Minnesota Lynx	92¢	$2	1h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx	BUY Minnesota Lynx	92¢	$2	1h
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group	BUY Yes	64¢	$2	1h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	30¢	$2	1h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	30¢	$2	1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl	BUY No	50¢	$2	2h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl	BUY No	46¢	$2	2h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	26¢	$2	2h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	74¢	$2	2h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	70¢	$2	2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	1¢	$2	2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	23¢	$2	3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	21¢	$2	3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	21¢	$2	3h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$2	4h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	67¢	$2	5h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	64¢	$2	5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	23¢	$2	5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	23¢	$2	5h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	61¢	$2	6h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	61¢	$2	6h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	62¢	$2	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$1	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.49 · official $35.49 (match) · 25 history records