Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
48 0x4888…6fcd sports 531 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+2%) realized +$35 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate70%362W / 157L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$33
other 1% +$1
finance 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -2.7% -11.9% 66% 66% -15.0%
≤30d 147 +3.1% -6.7% 73% 67% -3.5%
≤90d 367 +0.2% -9.4% 70% 64% -8.3%
all 519 -0.3% -9.8% 70% 64% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 64% -7.6%
10% -18.4% 51% -16.5%
15% -26.3% 33% -24.6%
20% -33.6% 18% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses362 / 157
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions12
Markets (closed)519 / 531
History coverage145d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 519 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Joao Fonseca 68¢ 69¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 72¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 77¢ 80¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Alex de Minaur 81¢ 81¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Karen Khachanov 69¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Karolina Pliskova 72¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Alexander Bublik 71¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Linda Noskova 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Karolina Muchova 69¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Brandon Nakashima 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $3 −$1 -31%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $4 +$2 +55%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $3 +$1 +32%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Jovic/Kessler vs Dabrowski/Stefani Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $2 $0 +24%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $2 +$2 +76%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $6 +$2 +42%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $3 +$1 +20%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $1 $0 -41%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 $0 +13%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $2 +$1 +31%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 09 $4 +$1 +34%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens Jun 08 $2 +$1 +34%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $2 +$2 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $3 +$2 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $8 +$2 +25%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 $0 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 07 $2 −$1 -29%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 07 $1 $0 +48%
Makarska: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Jun 07 $2 $0 +12%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Danilina/Krunic Jun 07 $2 +$1 +26%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller Jun 07 $2 +$1 +48%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $5 +$1 +27%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $1 $0 +40%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 05 $1 $0 +46%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 05 $3 +$2 +55%
Makarska: Rebecca Sramkova vs Tara Wurth Jun 04 $2 −$1 -36%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 04 $1 +$1 +52%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $1 +$1 +93%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1 +$1 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 89¢ $1 20m
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 72¢ $3 21m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 81¢ $2 21m
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 69¢ $2 22m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Brandon Nakashima 62¢ $2 2h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 71¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 69¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 68¢ $4 25h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 77¢ $3 25h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $3 25h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 81¢ $3 25h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $4 29h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Barbora Krejcikova 72¢ $3 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Martin Landaluce 76¢ $4 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Raphael Collignon 64¢ $4 2d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 18¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Jovic/Kessler vs Dabrowski/Stefani BUY Dabrowski/Stefani 79¢ $4 4d
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Magda Linette 49¢ $1 4d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Barbora Krejcikova 65¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 45¢ $1 4d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $3 4d
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Vitaliy Sachko 52¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 75¢ $3 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 81¢ $3 5d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 57¢ $5 5d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Barbora Krejcikova 80¢ $2 5d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 50¢ $2 5d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 76¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Anastasia Potapova 64¢ $3 5d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 73¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.51 · official $30.52 (match) · 1210 history records