Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4887…dea2
other · 122 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$208 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$199 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$124
Realized−$199
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses37 / 69
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)106 / 122
History coverage139d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 16 History 106 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 6¢ 82¢ $1 $14 +$13 (+1264%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 8¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-67%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026? No 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 25 $10 −$8 -75%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $10 +$6 +62%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5 May 18 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $10 +$8 +79%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 18 $20 +$6 +27%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 11 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? May 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$7 +65%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $10 +$4 +44%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $10 +$1 +13%
Spread: Sevilla FC (-1.5) May 05 $10 +$2 +18%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 05 $10 +$4 +44%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $10 +$6 +60%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $10 +$9 +86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $8 +$24 +291%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Score May 02 $10 +$6 +55%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 01 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 01 $10 −$4 -37%
Will NewJeans perform again by March 31? May 01 $10 +$4 +43%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 18 $5 +$2 +45%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% −$31
sports 19% +$4
politics 10% −$111
crypto 5% −$27
world 5% −$5
economics 4% −$40
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $10 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 11¢ $3 19d
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 23d
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 23d
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 23d
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 23d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 23d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 23d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 23d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 23d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 23d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 23d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 24d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 26d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 26d
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 28d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 28d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 28d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 28d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 30d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $10 33d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 34d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Stade Brestois 29 65¢ $20 34d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 34d
Will Real Oviedo vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 34d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +23.5% +11.7% 100% 100% +11.7%
≤30d 10 +22.3% +10.7% 70% 70% +11.4%
≤90d 40 +15.5% +4.5% 65% 65% +11.7%
all 106 -30.0% -36.6% 35% 34% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 34% -28.9%
10% -42.7% 31% -35.7%
15% -48.2% 28% -41.9%
20% -53.3% 20% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.18 · official $124.18 (match) · 193 history records