Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4887…16e4 sports 216 markets active 2h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$105 (+3%) realized +$105 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%82W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$26
14 days+$313
30 days+$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$11
other 24% +$354
world 18% −$220
politics 4% −$78
crypto 3% +$116
tech 0% +$11
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +34.2% +21.4% 50% 50% -6.9%
≤30d 24 +21.7% +10.1% 50% 42% +12.9%
≤90d 150 -61.6% -65.3% 17% 16% -29.4%
all 213 +2.6% -7.2% 38% 37% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 37% -5.2%
10% -16.0% 36% -14.2%
15% -24.2% 35% -22.5%
20% -31.6% 35% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$13 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses82 / 131
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 216
History coverage251d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $86 +$91 +106%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $47 +$51 +108%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Nor Jun 23 $10 +$69 +673%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $234 +$141 +60%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $69 −$49 -71%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $219 −$218 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $91 −$90 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $26 +$23 +91%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $13 +$5 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$52 +66%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 +$75 +253%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 +$72 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $144 +$237 +164%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $297 −$210 -71%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 07 $22 −$16 -74%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 26 $94 −$94 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 20 $15 +$7 +47%
Spread: Clippers (-4.5) Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 18 $81 +$112 +138%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $22 +$5 +23%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 15 $20 −$12 -61%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 14 $69 −$30 -44%
Spread: Thunder (-17.5) Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Jazz Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-12.5) Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-5.5) Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Celtics Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Cavaliers Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $112 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 93¢ $35 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 51¢ $5 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 51¢ $26 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 27¢ $15 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 27¢ $12 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 54¢ $59 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread BUY 34¢ $51 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 97¢ $18 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 93¢ $23 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 47¢ $3 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 47¢ $4 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 47¢ $40 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 22¢ $10 38h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Colombia w BUY 30¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $114 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $95 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $139 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 49¢ $49 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 30¢ $2 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 30¢ $5 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 39¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Nor BUY 13¢ $10 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $116 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 611 history records