Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:31:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
48 0x4884…237c sports 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,427 (+10%) realized +$1,425 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate63%22W / 13L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$390per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days+$273
14 days−$1,026
30 days+$2,542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$1,449
other 13% −$46
crypto 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +44.4% +30.6% 82% 76% +19.5%
≤30d 28 +21.7% +10.1% 64% 61% +11.2%
≤90d 28 +21.7% +10.1% 64% 61% +11.2%
all 35 +12.4% +1.7% 63% 57% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 57% -0.7%
10% -8.0% 49% -10.2%
15% -16.9% 34% -18.9%
20% -25.1% 31% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$560) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$268 vs −$345 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$1,425
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses22 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage366d
Avg bet$390
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 41¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 19¢ 20¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$39 +76%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $50 +$17 +35%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $101 +$26 +26%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $25 +$8 +30%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $26 +$1 +5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $226 +$27 +12%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $26 −$26 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $101 +$65 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 +$18 +36%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $23 +$28 +119%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$16 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $15 +$10 +64%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $8 +$17 +203%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $48 +$13 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $26 +$71 +279%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 09 $72 −$72 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 09 $993 −$993 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 09 $560 −$560 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,228 +$1,388 +113%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,000 +$1,372 +137%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $88 −$59 -67%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 26 $2,280 −$280 -12%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2,475 +$2,020 +82%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $507 +$514 +102%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 03 $339 −$206 -61%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 03 $1,371 +$159 +12%
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Oct 25 $100 −$69 -69%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jul 02 $1,099 −$1,099 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 02 $100 +$15 +15%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 23 $303 +$74 +24%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 25m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 19¢ $20 26m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $51 27m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 76¢ $25 40m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 74¢ $50 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 34¢ $27 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $26 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $200 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $7 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $15 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $18 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $11 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 61¢ $51 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $35 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $21 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 21h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $50 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $23 22h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 82¢ $23 24h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 76¢ $25 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 33¢ $8 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 61¢ $15 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 94¢ $47 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $26 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 96¢ $2,616 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 45¢ $119 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.99 · official $272.99 (match) · 215 history records