Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4884…4a5b crypto 1934 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$580 (-9%) realized −$580 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate66%1248W / 635L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day98.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days+$72
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$54
other 12% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -3.8% -13.0% 57% 57% -11.9%
≤30d 1883 -0.1% -9.7% 66% 41% -9.4%
≤90d 1883 -0.1% -9.7% 66% 41% -9.4%
all 1883 -0.1% -9.7% 66% 41% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 41% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 37% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 35% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 32% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$580
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1248 / 635
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1883 / 1934
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day98.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1883 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 16m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records