Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4882…eb75 politics 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$10
sports 21% −$4
other 19% −$4
crypto 7% −$1
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 82 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage197d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $258 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $259 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $522 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $259 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $259 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $259 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 19 $260 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $260 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $261 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $512 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $262 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $262 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $262 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $262 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $525 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $262 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $263 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 24 $262 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $263 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $525 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $263 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $263 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 12 $263 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $522 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $264 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $254 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Mar 04 $259 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $252 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $252 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 27 $257 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 26 $257 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 07 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $258 $0 -0%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 05 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 04 $261 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $252 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jan 31 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 28 $255 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $258 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $130 12h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $128 12h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $258 10d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $258 10d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $259 16d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $259 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $259 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $259 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $259 30d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $259 30d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $259 33d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $259 34d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $259 35d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $259 35d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $258 38d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $258 38d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $258 43d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $259 44d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $260 60d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $260 60d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $260 61d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $260 61d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $260 62d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $260 62d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $260 63d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $261 63d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $261 65d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $261 66d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $261 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records