Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4881…78d6 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-11%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +110% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +83% what you keep after slip
Net edge+83%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$4
other 28% +$9
world 18% −$50
crypto 8% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+90.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +110.4% +90.3% 50% 50% -22.4%
≤30d 10 +110.4% +90.3% 50% 50% -22.4%
≤90d 10 +110.4% +90.3% 50% 50% -22.4%
all 10 +110.4% +90.3% 50% 50% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +90.3% 50% -22.4%
10% +72.1% 30% -29.8%
15% +55.5% 30% -36.6%
20% +40.2% 30% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +110% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 +$11 +21%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -95%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$10 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$12 +56%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $29 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 44h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $61 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $50 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 52¢ $33 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $33 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.73 · official $24.73 (match) · 22 history records