Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4881…743f crypto 629 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$604 (+0%) realized +$604 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate82%515W / 113L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$19
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$649
other 0% +$4
sports 0% +$1
world 0% −$12
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.5% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 46 -64.8% -68.1% 26% 2% -9.1%
≤90d 480 -2.7% -11.9% 85% 9% -9.4%
all 628 +2.5% -7.2% 82% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 13% -9.3%
10% -16.1% 6% -17.9%
15% -24.2% 4% -25.9%
20% -31.6% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$22 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$604
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses515 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)628 / 629
History coverage157d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 628 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $238 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $238 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $228 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $225 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $226 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $751 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $694 +$67 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $432 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $54 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $95 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 16 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 16 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $238 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $238 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $228 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $225 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $226 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $13 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $14 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.55 (match) · 3310 history records