Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
48 0x487d…2cfb crypto 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$1,264 (-7%) realized −$1,390 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate44%44W / 56L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,643
world 3% +$127
other 0% +$37
sports 0% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -16.6% -24.5% 73% 18% -8.5%
≤30d 15 -16.1% -24.1% 67% 27% -1.4%
≤90d 18 -22.9% -30.3% 61% 28% -6.7%
all 100 -0.1% -9.7% 44% 30% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 30% -17.4%
10% -18.3% 26% -25.3%
15% -26.2% 19% -32.6%
20% -33.4% 12% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$79 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,390
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses44 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage136d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $601 $0 −$601 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $987 $0 −$987 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $406 +$153 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $132 −$102 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $206 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $307 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $502 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 30 $8 −$5 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 30 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 30 $11 +$10 +95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $400 +$185 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 14 $147 −$141 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 13 $60 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 02 $853 −$846 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 02 $609 −$601 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 02 $306 −$302 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 02 $748 −$66 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 02 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 02 $150 −$149 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 02 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 01 $120 −$118 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 01 $130 −$85 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 01 $100 +$52 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 01 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 01 $473 +$429 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 01 $50 +$2 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 01 $578 +$194 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 31 $4 +$50 +1327%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Jan 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 31 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 31 $39 −$21 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 31 $73 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 31 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 31 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 31 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $62 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $18 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $24 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $106 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 494 history records