Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4879…e76b politics 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 62L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$16
other 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 65 -2.0% -11.4% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage631d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–A Mar 04 $56 −$2 -4%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will 'The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess' win Album of the Year? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brian Thomas Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Christian McCaffrey win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Rudy Giuliani attend presidential inauguration? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Fed emergency rate cut in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C? Dec 21 $4 $0 +0%
No Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will another company be the largest company in the world by market cap Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Trump's November 26 sentencing pushed back? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Orlando City win the MLS Cup? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Chad Wolf for Homeland Security Secretary? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the Western Conference? Nov 11 $0 $0 -5%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 11 $1 $0 -2%
RFK Jr. wins a state? Oct 08 $0 $0 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 08 $1,998 −$2 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win New York Presidential Election Oct 08 $0 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 14h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $54 19d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $54 19d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 22d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 23d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 30d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 31d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 33d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 33d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 38d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 39d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 67d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 68d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $55 90d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 91d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $55 96d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $55 96d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 99d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 99d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 102d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 103d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 107d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 107d
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–A SELL No 96¢ $54 108d
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–A BUY No 100¢ $56 147d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $55 209d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $55 247d
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? SELL No 100¢ $1 547d
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? BUY No 100¢ $1 547d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records