Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:16:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4878…dfac other 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$299 (+3%) realized +$297 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate58%86W / 62L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit1%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$276
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -11.3% -19.8% 50% 33% -8.5%
≤30d 19 +1.2% -8.4% 47% 37% -7.5%
≤90d 71 -2.0% -11.3% 51% 32% -11.1%
all 148 +2.9% -6.9% 58% 36% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 36% -6.8%
10% -15.8% 19% -15.7%
15% -24.0% 11% -23.9%
20% -31.4% 6% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$297
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses86 / 62
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage157d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit1%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 71¢ 76¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $27 +$4 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $37 −$4 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $64 +$5 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $42 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $18 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$5 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $35 −$5 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $53 −$4 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $97 +$13 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $38 +$7 +20%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $20 −$11 -54%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $9 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $36 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $22 +$26 +117%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $7 −$2 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $17 +$4 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $3 +$2 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $57 −$20 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $26 −$16 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $54 +$7 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $26 +$6 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $52 +$18 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $76 −$36 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $33 −$3 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $73 −$4 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $99 +$7 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $67 +$13 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $19 −$13 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $19 +$12 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 30 $11 −$6 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $17 −$5 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 28 $23 +$4 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 27 $74 +$4 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $48 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $81 −$24 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 10 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 05 $145 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 04 $34 +$4 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $36 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $19 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $9 29h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $4 29h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $2 29h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $26 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $19 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $23 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $13 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $13 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $40 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $39 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $42 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $18 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $18 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.00 · official $38.25 (match) · 1049 history records