Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x4877…718e sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+3%) realized +$15 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%30W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days−$11
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$59
other 31% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +1.5% -8.2% 68% 68% -11.3%
≤30d 43 +4.9% -5.1% 70% 70% -7.2%
≤90d 43 +4.9% -5.1% 70% 70% -7.2%
all 43 +4.9% -5.1% 70% 70% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 70% -7.2%
10% -14.2% 65% -16.1%
15% -22.5% 51% -24.2%
20% -30.1% 35% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses30 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Fenerbahce 65¢ 62¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-5%)
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Ugo Humbert 63¢ 94¢ $16 $25 +$8 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Alexander Zverev vs. Raphael Collignon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $14 +$7 +48%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $30 +$18 +60%
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon Jun 19 $39 +$12 +32%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $15 +$10 +65%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$3 +38%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $8 +$4 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $53 +$6 +12%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 +$5 +24%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $8 +$4 +48%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $11 −$6 -58%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Etcheverry vs Medvedev Jun 16 $8 +$3 +32%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $8 +$5 +57%
Humbert vs. Cilic: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $9 +$4 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $35 +$7 +21%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $8 +$4 +52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 +$4 +71%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $6 +$3 +54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Vekic Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
UD Las Palmas leading at halftime? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Svajda Jun 15 $9 +$5 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 +$6 +26%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $23 +$8 +33%
UD Almería leading at halftime? Jun 14 $26 +$7 +28%
Set 1 Winner: Trungelliti vs Galan Jun 10 $14 +$8 +54%
Set 1 Winner: Struff vs Bublik Jun 10 $20 +$11 +54%
Set 1 Winner: Siegemund vs Anisimova Jun 10 $20 +$8 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 65¢ $39 1h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Ugo Humbert 63¢ $17 1h
Alexander Zverev vs. Raphael Collignon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 67¢ $14 6h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 60¢ $15 6h
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon BUY Zverev 75¢ $39 7h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 62¢ $30 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $53 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $5 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $5 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $5 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $8 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $8 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $18 3d
Humbert vs. Cilic: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 66¢ $8 3d
Set 1 Winner: Etcheverry vs Medvedev BUY Medvedev 75¢ $8 3d
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $8 3d
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 63¢ $8 3d
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 72¢ $8 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $5 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $9 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $8 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $35 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $10 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $9 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 3d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 76¢ $6 3d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 58¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.65 · official $61.65 (match) · 83 history records