Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4876…a2b0 crypto 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-3%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%39W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day66.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$130
world 3% −$24
other 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -15.6% -23.6% 40% 33% -30.4%
≤30d 98 -15.6% -23.6% 40% 33% -30.4%
≤90d 98 -15.6% -23.6% 40% 33% -30.4%
all 98 -15.6% -23.6% 40% 33% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 33% -30.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 27% -37.1%
15% -37.6% 19% -43.1%
20% -43.7% 15% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses39 / 59
Open positions4
Markets (closed)98 / 102
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day66.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$11 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$5 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $93 −$28 -30%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $126 −$30 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$15 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $63 −$28 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$15 -56%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$1 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$6 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$1 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$2 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$4 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$1 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$8 +265%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$3 +18%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$2 -26%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$10 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6m
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7m
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $7 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $6 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $8 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $6 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $7 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $36 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $37 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $32 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.53 · official $3.48 (match) · 348 history records