Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4876…e6fc crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$697 (-5%) realized −$697 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%24W / 27L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$52
14 days−$1,245
30 days−$1,223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$1,558
world 18% +$335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 51 -20.0% -27.6% 47% 39% -17.9%
≤90d 51 -20.0% -27.6% 47% 39% -17.9%
all 51 -20.0% -27.6% 47% 39% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 39% -17.9%
10% -34.5% 25% -25.8%
15% -40.9% 14% -33.0%
20% -46.7% 12% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$139 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$697
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses24 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage14d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $230 −$107 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $78 −$19 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $49 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$12 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $39 +$13 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $70 +$41 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $522 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $623 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $104 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $310 +$69 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $309 +$236 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $104 +$30 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $311 +$50 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $620 −$137 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $840 +$499 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $312 +$95 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $310 +$101 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $313 +$431 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $522 −$232 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $514 −$11 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $514 −$22 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $313 +$152 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$53 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $206 −$52 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $110 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $212 −$97 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $210 −$23 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $525 −$44 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $517 +$66 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $510 −$249 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $517 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $518 +$314 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $106 −$100 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1,650 +$313 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $500 +$29 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $13 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $110 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $33 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $34 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $38 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $31 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $31 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $13 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $24 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $37 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $24 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $41 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records