Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4873…b27a other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%20W / 228L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
sports 26% −$22
economics 6% −$6
culture 6% −$7
politics 6% −$3
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses20 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage135d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $336 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $741 −$2 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $543 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $250 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $130 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $621 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $282 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $333 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $482 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $214 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $503 +$1 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $602 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $297 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $616 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $387 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $146 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $234 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $495 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $73 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $111 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $615 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $171 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $183 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 04 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $290 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $842 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $535 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $67 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $67 4h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $67 5h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 8h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $67 15h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $67 17h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $67 27h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $67 28h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 30h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $67 31h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 35h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 37h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 39h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $9 39h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 39h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $7 39h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $17 41h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 41h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 42h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 43h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $68 46h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $68 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $68 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $68 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $68 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $68 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.78 · official $66.78 (match) · 1409 history records