Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
48 0x4873…696b crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$273 (+23%) realized +$270 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%18W / 31L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days+$259
14 days+$287
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$237
crypto 6% −$11
sports 1% +$30
world 0% −$4
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +12.2% +1.5% 50% 50% +39.4%
≤30d 21 +1.2% -8.4% 43% 43% +32.1%
≤90d 21 +1.2% -8.4% 43% 43% +32.1%
all 49 -15.6% -23.7% 37% 35% +24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 35% +24.1%
10% -31.0% 35% +12.2%
15% -37.6% 33% +1.4%
20% -43.8% 27% -8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +37% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$5 · ×4.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized+$270
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses18 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage145d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $497 $500 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $201 +$147 +74%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $12 +$29 +237%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $35 +$16 +46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $22 +$13 +58%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $43 +$21 +48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$33 +307%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 09 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 09 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 09 $13 −$2 -15%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 09 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 09 $2 +$4 +215%
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 09 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 09 $1 +$4 +367%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 08 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 07 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 07 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 05 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 05 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $501 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $348 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 40h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 45h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 85¢ $41 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 93¢ $51 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $34 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $22 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $43 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $500.00 · official $500.00 (match) · 76 history records