Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4871…0742 sports 391 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,468 (-6%) realized −$6,901 · open +$433
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%231W / 158L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$1,209est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$576
7 days+$605
14 days−$132
30 days−$5,131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$2,363
other 10% −$3,847
world 1% −$611
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 44% -6.7%
≤30d 164 -3.3% -12.5% 52% 51% -17.6%
≤90d 389 -5.4% -14.4% 59% 57% -16.2%
all 389 -5.4% -14.4% 59% 57% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 57% -16.2%
10% -22.6% 46% -24.2%
15% -30.1% 25% -31.5%
20% -37.0% 16% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$237 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$2,385
Realized−$6,901
Unrealized+$433
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses231 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,209
Open positions2
Markets (closed)389 / 391
History coverage56d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners Over 58¢ 100¢ $970 $1,673 +$702 (+72%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 6.5 Corners Over 41¢ 30¢ $981 $712 −$269 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $1,314 −$1,291 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $985 +$505 +51%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $967 +$833 +86%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $778 −$767 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $596 −$585 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $1,568 +$1,588 +101%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $700 −$700 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $587 +$505 +86%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $560 +$440 +78%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $732 +$468 +64%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $507 +$436 +86%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $720 +$880 +122%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $510 −$500 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $608 −$600 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $575 +$1,924 +335%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $413 −$403 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $536 −$525 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $467 −$460 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$88 +456%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $618 −$611 -99%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $154 −$150 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $246 −$244 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $326 +$773 +237%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $314 −$310 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $108 +$52 +48%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $739 −$739 -100%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $484 +$260 +54%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $540 −$540 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +54%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 06 $727 −$720 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $1,055 −$1,040 -99%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $560 −$560 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $1,100 −$180 -16%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $550 +$174 +32%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $550 +$450 +82%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $500 +$214 +43%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $658 +$1,342 +204%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $19 +$15 +82%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 06 $213 −$210 -98%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $550 +$449 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 58¢ $983 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 41¢ $998 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 40¢ $1,314 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 67¢ $583 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 63¢ $402 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $967 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $35 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $778 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $66 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $596 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 66¢ $3 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $686 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $14 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $1,568 26h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $587 34h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,009 34h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,009 34h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $527 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $33 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,009 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $700 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $12 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $668 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $43 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,384.83 · official $2,384.83 (match) · 1012 history records