Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x4870…7e0a politics 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% $0
other 19% $0
world 6% $0
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -0.0% -9.5% 19% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage106d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $111 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $111 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $111 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $111 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $112 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $112 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $112 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $112 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $112 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $112 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $112 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $112 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $111 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $111 17h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $111 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 12d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 19d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 19d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $111 29d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $111 29d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 31d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 32d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 36d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 36d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $111 40d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $83 41d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 41d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 66d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 66d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $112 70d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $112 71d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $112 75d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $112 75d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $112 80d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $112 81d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $112 87d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $112 87d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 92d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 93d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records