Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x486f…3ddf
crypto · 743 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$113 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$115 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized+$115
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses350 / 384
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions9
Markets (closed)734 / 743
History coverage60d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 9 History 734 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$8
14 days+$53
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Over 57¢ 55¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 48¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? No 46¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+117%)
Will St. Louis City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $5 −$4 -76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $8 −$2 -31%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 +$4 +80%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $3 +$7 +188%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 −$9 -95%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $4 −$3 -88%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +70%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $4 +$5 +101%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $3 −$3 -91%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +104%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +76%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 +$4 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 9? Jun 11 $5 $0 -10%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $8 −$6 -76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$3 -84%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $1 +$5 +307%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $4 +$4 +82%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $4 +$4 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $5 −$4 -91%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $3 −$2 -86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +82%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +63%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +73%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $4 +$5 +101%
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $5 −$1 -27%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $5 +$5 +105%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$5 +114%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $4 +$4 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $4 +$4 +118%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $5 +$4 +97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% +$110
crypto 40% −$16
other 7% +$25
world 1% +$11
weather 1% −$16
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 American League Championship Series BUY Yes 19¢ $4 49m
Will St. Louis City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 49m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $8 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 9¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $4 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 10¢ $5 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 7¢ $4 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 9¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 99¢ $9 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 55¢ $5 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $5 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 100¢ $10 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 20¢ $5 4h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 6¢ $0 4h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ $3 5h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 6¢ $1 5h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 27h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $4 27h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $9 27h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 28h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 4¢ $0 30h
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 31h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 31h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 32h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 33h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $5 33h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $4 33h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 34h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 34h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 8¢ $3 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +20.2% +8.7% 49% 47% -13.0%
≤30d 175 +18.1% +6.8% 50% 49% +4.2%
≤90d 734 +3.3% -6.6% 48% 45% -5.5%
all 734 +3.3% -6.6% 48% 45% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 45% -5.5%
10% -15.5% 43% -14.6%
15% -23.7% 41% -22.8%
20% -31.2% 38% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.42 · official $34.43 (match) · 2197 history records