Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x486e…c465 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$12
other 23% −$3
politics 9% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -27.8% -34.7% 0% 0% -34.7%
≤30d 4 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 17% -6.0%
all 32 -2.8% -12.0% 38% 6% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 6% -8.3%
10% -20.4% 0% -17.0%
15% -28.1% 0% -25.1%
20% -35.2% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage459d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $12 −$3 -28%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $16 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $65 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $109 +$9 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $51 +$7 +14%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 06 $6 $0 +4%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 08 $7 −$2 -37%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 05 $5 +$1 +12%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 05 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 05 $4 $0 +4%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $9 $0 +3%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 24 $9 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 08 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 07 $5 $0 -4%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 07 $11 −$3 -24%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $13 $0 +2%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 22 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 14h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $28 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $30 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $58 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $24 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $41 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $27 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $38 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $46 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $52 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $14 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $40 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $8 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $18 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $40 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 64¢ $1 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 64¢ $48 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 64¢ $9 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 56¢ $39 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 56¢ $12 31d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $2 184d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 80¢ $6 209d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 80¢ $6 209d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 80¢ $6 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.10 · official $38.10 (match) · 99 history records